Basketball and gambling have more in common than you may think. In order to be successful at pursuit, it is helpful to have an established system. In the event of basketball, obtaining a reliable offensive scheme which you’re able to roll out every game irrespective of the matchup provides you a leg-up. Think Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace assault or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll crime in the 1980s and 90s.
If it comes to betting, you can acquire the same type of advantage by having a tightly defined set of principles that it is possible to use to every single match regardless of who is on the court.
Fortunately, you do not have to create your own betting strategy from scratch. There are already several recognized strategies that you can try on for size once you lay down wagers on your favorite teams, and there is no rule against pilfering from the playbooks of those who came before you. We have included some of the most dependable systems and money-management strategies below, together with insights about how best to use them. When coupled with an comprehension of the sport, these systems can help turn rookie betters to all-stars.
The Top Totals System
Few strategies are easier to learn and use than the Top Totals System made by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Getting a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks often underestimate game totals for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games using an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a very simple strategy, but it paid off handsomely as he had been right 63.5percent of time for all games meeting that criteria from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those sorts of games were rarities a decade before, but they are becoming more common now as teams push the pace and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points each game. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and climbed all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have gotten savvy for this trend, but there’s still worth to be seen by taking the above in matches with especially high total-point projections.